One day I will write a note about the exciting developments in web3 social, but after Broadway distracted me last week, some of the latest developments in digital asset markets have set up another important discussion in risk management. In traditional markets, when lenders and hedge funds experience liquidity crunches, it’s a big deal because the financial system is deeply interconnected, and most parties carry high amounts of leverage. During previous cryptoasset cycles, institutional involvement was muted. However, as professional investors have become more comfortable with the nascent technologies and their associated tokens, the funds flow has become less retail dominated. The arrival of DeFi lending pools, CeFi Savings & Loan operators, and many former Wall Streeters combined with lots of fresh capital drove substantial innovation and wealth. Yet, markets have rolled over, exposing hubris, inexperience, and greed.
The discussion that follows, is going to examine some critical errors that have resulted in significant losses. Where relevant, I have sampled directly from corporate communications and when I provide an opinion it should be considered my own and not representative of my employer’s view. If, at times, my thoughts come across imbalanced, it’s because they are. I think many of the blunders should have been avoided, but I’m not working with perfect information. However, I do believe what psychologist and author Adam Grant says on criticism:
"Criticizing is easy and fast. Creating is difficult and slow. The two hours you spent on a book or movie usually took two years to produce. Anyone can tear down someone else’s work. The true test of insight is whether you can help them improve it or build something of your own."
At Aquanow, we are building and we’re also here to help guide entrepreneurs or established businesses as they endeavour to provide their clients access to digital assets.
Ok, so what happened?
Unfortunately, we can’t answer this question with precision because the inner workings of digital asset lenders are carried out in a black box fashion. In many ways, this isn’t dissimilar from the traditional banking system. You don’t know what exactly your financial institution does with your deposits, but regulation and insurance provide comfort. In fact, you might even take that for granted.
In developed economies, money markets are generally sound to the extent that, when difficulties come about, central banks and governments step in to stem any widespread fallout. However, the bailouts can’t insulate everyone. Many see their net worths impaired and jobs cut when a crisis hits. The disaster playing out in the digital asset ecosystem is causing similar losses, but there is no central authority to backstop. The pain is exacerbated due to the broader economic slowdown and revaluation of other emerging technologies, too
When UST lost its peg, Luna crashed, and the Terra ecosystem collapsed about a month ago, it seemed as if any broad contagion had been avoided. The projects under development could continue to build on Terra 2.0 or move to another rust-based chain with non-trivial code adjustments. Some investment funds had sustained significant losses and several retail investors were wiped out, but it seemed that there was a collective sigh of relief as stablecoin market cap resumed its growth and the value of assets locked in DeFi protocols stabilized. However, there was a nuanced development that many brushed aside. The value of ETH delegated to validators for the Ethereum beacon chain (we’ll refer to this as stETH going forward – you can read the Cobie link below for more detail) departed from the value of regular ETH.
While stETH and ETH represent the same asset, there’s a notable difference. The former can trade freely but represents a commensurate token which is locked until (at least) the Ethereum mainnet transitions to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. This event has been labeled “The Merge” and is anticipated in the fall of 2022 but could be delayed further. A popular trade among Ethereum bulls, has been to stake their ETH to earn rewards, effectively compounding their holdings over time. Lending protocols and liquidity pools listed markets where users could deposit their stETH as collateral to borrow regular ETH and repeat the cycle. Assuming there isn’t a decoupling of the two assets, this provides a way for users to leverage their ETH holdings.
As we saw, the Terra collapse pulled liquidity from the system from price insensitive sellers who needed to raise cash. Unwinding the trade above is tricky because the exchange volumes of stETH are comparatively small and you can’t exchange those tokens for the native asset at the validator level. Cobie explains the situation nicely:
About a week ago, Twitter began to come alive with discussion of potential spillover effects from the fading cointegration of the two tokens. People had created extremely high-leverage positions in stETH/ETH to generate higher yields, but a key tenet of this trade was that the assets would trade in unison and that borrowed ETH wouldn’t be called in too abruptly.
The day after that tweet thread, the popular digital asset lending platform, Celsius halted all withdrawals, swaps, and transfers. Since then, they’ve hired restructuring lawyers, too. If the Terra collapse was “crypto’s Lehman moment” then the newest debacle is reminiscent of Long-Term Capital Management’s (LTCM) failure. LTCM was a hedge fund founded by some of the smartest minds in mathematical finance and Wall Street’s most cunning traders. When the fund launched in 1993, the minimum investment was $10M and many of the top brokerage houses participated. The group’s strategy was initially centered on bond trades that anticipated prices converging to levels that made sense, statistically. In 1998, when the fund began to teeter, its equity value was $5B, but it had borrowed $125B against that; representing a leverage factor of 25x. Does this sound familiar?
The description of events is eerily similar to what’s playing out in digital asset markets today. But here’s an important divergence:
There won’t be a public bailout to shore up the losses from Terra or Celsius, so markets will have to clear themselves and we’re starting to get a glimpse of what that might look like. The prominent hedge fund, Three Arrows Capital, is now facing insolvency and they’re an important borrower across the space. Could BlockFi, Genesis or Nexo be next? This uncertainty is likely to weigh on token prices and balance sheets across the space until something changes the collective psychology.
Who’s got exposure?
Counterparty risk is a chief concern in the financial system. This is a function of all the interbank dealings, leverage, and the fact that banking is a confidence game. When rumors circulate about a client’s ability to pay, then a lender will do what they can to reduce the potential for losses in their book. Sometimes this means transferring risk to an unknowing party or quickly forcing settlement before others come calling too. This results in rapidly mounting losses. For more on this, check out Margin Call – such a good movie – or read about the Archegos calamity of a couple years ago.
In addition to the lack of an imminent central bank bailout, the situation above has another profound difference. The entities that blew up in the historical examples above are investment banks or hedge funds, while Celsius is known and branded as a banking alternative. They’re careful to distinguish that the offering is not a savings account in the fine print, but the “About” segment of the company website says:
This is tough to get my head around and will certainly be addressed in future legislation. An unfortunate circumstance in much of the developed world is that financial literacy is weak. We barely even teach about compound interest, let alone investment risk. Many remain skeptical towards traditional financial institutions following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. To an extent, comments from bank executives like Bank of America’s CEO, Brian Moynihan a couple weeks ago saying that rates on deposit accounts could go to 11 – 40 bps if the Fed Funds Rate rose to 250 bps aren’t helping this either. Further, the low interest rate environment of the past several years caused a situation where consumers were on the hunt for higher yields. The marketing campaign above seems to lean on all three of these elements. I’m not saying this was done deliberately, but a thoughtful analysis of the message would have uncovered this issue and a regulated entity would not have been permitted to make such assertions.
The quote above is one person’s opinion, and I have no idea if it’s accurate, but it does seem like there were risk management missteps at the FinTech. The effects are causing ripples across the ecosystem, but what might be worse is that there are several companies who make similar assertions about deposits and yield.
Seashell is another digital non-bank, but the CEO is quoted on their site as saying: “we're improving the banking experience to put more money in your pocket… Seashell provides the most simple and secure way to earn high and stable interest.” A consumer reading this assertion might be enticed by such an offering. On the homepage, visitors are greeted with the following:
Here we have another mention of high and stable yields that can compound “while you sleep” with “bank-level security”. Adding reassurance, your money is always available and there are no hidden fees. I’m not sure if the term “security” is used in reference to data integrity or principal protection, but nonetheless, the product seems compelling.
Scrolling further down the page, viewers come across an initiative whereby Seashell will set aside a portion of their proceeds to “support green initiatives that protect our world's oceans and water supply.” Bu soylu bir çaba ve çevre bilincine sahip Y ve Z kuşağı tüketicilerine kesinlikle hitap edecektir. Biraz daha aşağı indiğimizde şunlarla karşılaşıyoruz:
Bir milyarder, “şiddetle” müşterilere, eğer akıllılarsa, birikimlerini enflasyon tehdidine karşı korumak için bu ürünü kullanmalarını öneriyor. Ünlülerin desteği güçlü bir pazarlama aracı olabilir ve sayfanın alt kısımlarına doğru, Bay Cuban'ın bu projeye yatırım yaptığını öğreniyoruz. Bir yandan bu durum, onun kararlılığının ve bunun sağlam bir iş olduğuna dair inancının bir göstergesi olabilir; ancak aynı zamanda kendi finansal çıkarına bağlı bir şeyi tanıttığı için ahlaki tehlike unsurları da barındırıyor.
Sırada, Seashell'in “yüksek ve istikrarlı getiriler” ifadesiyle neyi kastettiğinin ilk nicel verisi var:
Yukarıdaki şekilde ima edilen getiri, yıllık %5 bileşik faiz oranıdır ve bu oran FDIC güvencesine sahip diğer yüksek faizli tasarruf hesaplarıyla %0,75 - %1,75 seviyelerinde kıyaslanmaktadır. Tasarruflar arasındaki fark 11.910 $ - 9.283 $ olacaktır ki bu oldukça dikkat çekicidir. Ayrıca, çizginin pürüzsüzlüğü bu getirinin “istikrarlı” olduğunu düşündürüyor. Bunu nasıl başarıyorlar?
“Daha fazla bilgi edinin” bağlantısında, firmanın “paranızı kısmen altın gibi güvenli liman varlıklarına, kısmen de dolara endeksli dijital varlıklara yatırarak çeşitlendirilmiş bir stratejiye yönlendirmeyi amaçladığını görüyoruz...” Belki kelime oyunlarına takılıyorum ama altının son beş yıldaki standart sapması %14'ün üzerinde ve bu pek de istikrarlı görünmüyor. Sarı metal ise genellikle enflasyonu yenmenin bir yolu olarak görülür, bu da mevduat sahiplerinin “artan fiyatlara karşı korunmasına” yardımcı olabilir ancak Seashell, bir tasarruf hesabından çok bir yatırım ürününe benzemeye başladı.
Buna ek olarak, Aquanow DeFi Fonlama Oranı, merkeziyetsiz platformlarda varlık destekli sabit coinlerin ödünç verilmesiyle elde edilen güncel getiriyi takip eden bir endekstir ve bir süredir %2'nin çok üzerinde işlem görmemiştir; bu nedenle şirketin belirtilen %5'lik yıllık bileşik büyüme oranına (CAGR) nasıl ulaşmayı planladığını merak ediyorum.
Sırada ne var?
Seashell'in hileli iddialarda bulunduğunu veya modelin bozuk olduğunu söylemiyorum, ancak iletişimleri şeffaf değil ve benim bakış açıma göre risk/getiri iddialarının bazıları sorgulanabilir. Eğer en kurumsal düzeydeki borç verme havuzlarının toplamı, hedeflediğiniz getirinin yarısından daha azını sunuyorsa, arzu edilen sonuçlara ulaşmak için muhtemelen riskinizi artırmanız gerekecektir.
Celsius'un hedeflerine ulaşmak için daha spekülatif projelere giriştiği iddia ediliyor ve bu durum DeFi açıklarından ve UST çöküşünden kaynaklanan yüz milyonlarca dolarlık zarara yol açtı. Gördüğümüz gibi, benzer bir iş modeline sahip olan tek şirket onlar değil. Bu doğrultuda, önde gelen borç verme ürünleri şu anda %5 - %12 arasında USDC borç verme oranları sunuyor ve token'ın sponsoru, Circle, %4'lük gösterge niteliğinde 1 aylık getiriye sahip. Projeler bu sonuçlara nasıl ulaşıyor? Güvenli bir şekilde getiri sağlama konusunda üstün bir yeteneğe sahip olabilirler. Bu işletmeler hakkında derinlemesine bir bilgim yok; belki de güvenilir ortaklar olarak görülmeleri gereken çok başarılı işletmecilerdir. Ancak bu gruplar risk odaklı bir davranış içindelerse, piyasadaki süregelen zayıflık sektör genelindeki getirileri baskıladığı için bunu yakında öğrenebiliriz. Her zaman olduğu gibi, alım veya satım yapmadan önce kapsamlı bir araştırma yapmak önemlidir
Alternatif olarak, yeni düzenlemeler bu şeffaf olmayan iş modellerine ışık tutabilir. ABD Senatörleri Kirsten Gillibrand ve Cynthia Lummis, Sorumlu Finansal İnovasyon Yasası'nı yaklaşık bir hafta önce sundular ve bu, söz konusu gelişmekte olan piyasaları düzenlemek için şimdiye kadar gördüğüm açık ara en düşünceli yaklaşım. Metnin tamamını okumak oldukça sıkıcı, ancak ikilinin tasarıyı CoinDesk ile tartıştığı yayını dinleyebilir veya bu özete göz atabilirsiniz.
Dijital varlık alanında yapılması gereken değişikliklerin dışarıdan dayatılacak olması talihsiz bir durum. Ne yazık ki, kurumsallaşma süreciyle birlikte bu alanın tabana yayılan ruhunun bir kısmını kaybedeceğimizi düşünüyorum, ancak bu gerekli görünüyor. Eğer web3'ün internetin bir sonraki evresi olmasını istiyorsak, devasa bir kullanıcı kitlesini korumak ve eğitmek için güvenlik önlemlerinin alınması şart. Web3 dünyasını keşfeden kişilere, şeffaf bilgilendirmelere sahip ve sponsorlarının yanlış beyanlardan sorumlu tutulduğu ürün ve hizmetler sunulmalıdır. Geleneksel piyasalarda da elbette eksiklikler var, ancak kurallar yasal kovuşturma için bir temel oluşturuyor.
Dijital varlık piyasalarında en sevdiğim şeyler inovasyon ve topluluklar. Düzenlenmiş bir ortamda bunlar yok olmuyor; aksine, toplulukların öz denetimi artırması ve projeleri daha yüksek standartlara tabi tutması gerekiyor. Mevcut kurumlara karşı durmayı sonuna kadar destekliyorum; rekabet herkesi daha iyi bir noktaya taşıyacaktır. Ancak sunduğumuz çözümlerin kullanıcılara gerçekten fayda sağlaması gerekiyor. Hadi yapalım şu işi.
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